The End of a Podcasting Era
By Chris on Jun 4, 2007 in Essays, Observations
We’re reaching the end of an era. The world of podcasting is maturing and changing, and I believe that we are hitting the end of that first, enthusiastic rush of people seeking to make their voices heard. Some might call it a Golden Age, but I’m not really sure that’s accurate. *Gold Rush Age* might be more apropos.
I believe that what we’re going to be seeing in the next 12-18 months is a fading of shows and personalities that helped start the podosphere. There’s no doom and gloom about this…it simply the way it goes. It is a combination of factors:
1. **Business models have either proven themselves by now, or not.** If not, they fade away, if so, the branch out and diversify, seeking to strengthen the brand. Witness the plans Podshow has to start a book imprint, or Escape Artists’ move to establish Pseudopod.
2. **Hosts have met with success and are moving on to new ventures.** Book contracts, movies, graphic novels, even radio. Work that pays a lot better than podcasting does. In the end, many may not have the time to continue a regular podcast due to these other ventures.
3. **Hosts have lost interest in the original premise of the show, and have moved on to other shows or ideas.** Again…this isn’t surprising…we all started doing this because we wanted speak out about something we were in love with, something for which we had a passion. These things can shift over time. Some, like [Mur Lafferty](http://www.geekfuactiongrip.com), have done well at navigating these waters and changing the show to match their shifting interests and priorities while retaining their audience. Others have not fared as well.
4. **The show has failed to meet the host’s expectations, and it’s time to move on.** Unless someone is truly devoted to the idea of working in a vacuum and not caring what others think, eventually a hobby has to give some sort of return on the investment of time. The hobby has to be worth it some how…either you can make money with it, or build a community, garner a bit of fame…something. There are many out there who, at this point, are growing weary of not meeting those expectations, and are ready to move on.
5. **Good old-fashioned personality conflicts.** Sometimes it just doesn’t work out. The parties go their separate ways, and the show fades away.
6. **The networks fade, and take some shows with them.** [PodcastPEN](http://www.tsfpn.com/) has shut down.. I’ve been hearing that [Trypod](http://www.trypodnetwork.com/) is in trouble. Audible is [shutting down their WorldCast service](http://www.podcastingnews.com/2007/05/30/audible-shuttering-proprietary-wordcast-podcasting-service/). That’s to be expected. The industry is maturing, and not everyone will make it over the current hurdle. It’s a bummer, and I will miss the shows that go, but it is inevitable…all good things must come to an end.
What I’m looking forward to seeing is what is going to come out of this downturn. This is a remarkable opportunity for some fresh talent to step in and take the reins. The technology is now mature and proven. The tools are in place, and creating content is just getting easier. Who will be the next generation of podcasting talent?
I cannot wait to find out. I hope they blow me away.
**UPDATE:** I’ve had a few folks point out that some of the original podcatching clients, like iPodderX (and possibly Juice, whose last update was July 19, 2006), never quite recovered from the inclusion of podcasts in iTunes. Will there be future innovation in podcatching clients? Or will we be looking to Apple to lead the way? Has the tech behind podcasting stabilized, or simply gone stale?
Well said, Chris. Having never been involved in prior movements from the beginning, I can only speculate that this is in fact the natural order of things. After all, the only constant in this world is change.
E.
evo | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
I think you’ve put that very well. The idea of this “new media” is change. I think it will most definitely change itself more than once. We will see hiccups along the way, but podcasting is still very new and still has a lot of growing pains.
The part I like about podcasting is that it can change. People can develop and create content they want to create. When they’re done with it or feel it has run its course, they can go on to do other things within podcasting or they may feel they need to leave it altogether. Despite it being a digital medium, it is quite organic this way.
Because podcasting is almost entirely “user” created content with little or no contractual commitments, the rate of change will be exponential compared to more “traditional” mediums. Of course, I find this both thrilling and sad — favorites end, but new ones will come along.
There will always be new horizons with endless possibilities.
Clair | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
With regards to your update, we feel that we’re continuing to innovate in the area of ‘podcatching.’ Our device-based catcher has just now started shipping on iRiver and other devices, and we’re making changes and improving it almost daily. With regards to iTunes, its more of an additional feature (allowing you to get podcasts from any computer regardless of where your iTunes is installed) rather than an iTunes replacement.
I’m certain that the delivery of media via RSS will become common place (almost as important to a media company as a web page) and as that happens the development will come back.
Just my $0.02 worth…
Russell Holliman
Founder
Podcast Ready, Inc.
russell holliman | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
Wow, this is ridiculously insightful. I’ve noticed this trend starting to take shape as well.
I think what’s hurting podcasting AND podcasters the most is both the name of the medium and the technology (podcasting is viewed as both) and the refusal of most podcasters to look at themselves as content producers. (in other words, “platform agnostic..hehe)
We need to get out of the RSS box, so to speak and find new ways to distribute our content. I don’t suppose that speaks positively for the medium in general, but valuable and quality content should be made available anywhere…
I hope this makes sense. Anyway, well written article man…All the best!
jason@insomniaradio.net | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
That’s good to hear, Russell, and you make an excellent point.
Chris | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
Chris,
I’m not sure I agree at all with a lot of the premises in your piece. While I do think you can equate the initial surge of people into podcasting as a sort of “gold rush,” I don’t believe everyone out there bases their show around a business model. And there is a lot of talent out there that does not have a book deal, radio contract or other gig. The talent pool of podcasting is more like that of fanzines; there is more talent out there then “traditional media” will every absorb. Also, as networks fade, that does not mean the shows themselves go away. I do, indeed, believe that podcasting will continue to evolve, I’m just not sure it’s due to all of the reasons you state.
Clinton | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
[quote comment="2210"]
I think what’s hurting podcasting AND podcasters the most is both the name of the medium and the technology (podcasting is viewed as both) and the refusal of most podcasters to look at themselves as content producers. (in other words, “platform agnostic..hehe)
We need to get out of the RSS box, so to speak and find new ways to distribute our content. I don’t suppose that speaks positively for the medium in general, but valuable and quality content should be made available anywhere…[/quote]
That’s an interesting point, Jason. I’d like to hear more about your thoughts on that.
Chris | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
[quote comment="2212"]Chris,
I’m not sure I agree at all with a lot of the premises in your piece. While I do think you can equate the initial surge of people into podcasting as a sort of “gold rush,” I don’t believe everyone out there bases their show around a business model. And there is a lot of talent out there that does not have a book deal, radio contract or other gig. The talent pool of podcasting is more like that of fanzines; there is more talent out there then “traditional media” will every absorb. Also, as networks fade, that does not mean the shows themselves go away. I do, indeed, believe that podcasting will continue to evolve, I’m just not sure it’s due to all of the reasons you state.[/quote]
I don’t think that everyone got into podcasting as a business. But I do think that, if you invest time in a thing, you expect to see some sort of return on that investment. If you receive that return, you grow and possibly change. If not, you probably move on to other things. Business is only one part of the equation, but investment covers the whole spectrum.
Chris | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
[quote comment="2214"]
I don’t think that everyone got into podcasting as a business. But I do think that, if you invest time in a thing, you expect to see some sort of return on that investment. If you receive that return, you grow and possibly change. If not, you probably move on to other things. Business is only one part of the equation, but investment covers the whole spectrum.[/quote]
Again, I respectfully disagree. It’s been stated many times that this is a hobby for a lot of people. You don’t expect to get paid to set up a model train set in your basement, jog or go to a Farscape convention. Having a business model is one way to go, but it’s not the only way to go.
Clinton | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
@Clinton: I think that “return on investment” can be many different things, and doesn’t necessarily have to me monetary. . .
@Chris: Shoot me an email (I can’t find yours here) and we can take the discussion offline. Cheers!
jason@insomniaradio.net | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
I wonder if history will wind up recording “That while iTunes with out question gave podcasting the big shot in the arm it needed to really get started, it wasn’t until the iPod craze was over with that real innovation took place.”
While I love my iPod Shuffle, only way to get playable stuff on it is via a closed proprietary system. No wonder there aren’t any other podcatchers. Who would want to have their podcatcher download files, then have to import them into iTunes, then copy them to their iPod, when iTunes can do the whole job?
Chris | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
You all may find this a great read: http://tinyurl.com/2bx8kp
The value isn’t in my words, but in all the reader comments
jason@insomniaradio.net | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
great post Chris. you should do a podcast or something.
P.G. Holyfield | Jun 4, 2007 | Reply
I’m not sure you can really call this a downturn. Reason: there is a constant flow of new talent coming in. The net number of podcasts, I suspect, is stable or growing, even without counting the number of shows tied to traditional media properties.
So the Golden Age will never really end, because the talent pool is bottomless. If some of the Class of 2004 fade away in 2007… well, to be brutally honest, they won’t even be a memory to the Class of 2014… and that’s okay.
As for the Gold Rush Age… well, almost no one makes a living from podcasting, and never has. There’s no Gold in that RSS stream… it’s on the banks, in consulting, production, voice work, lectures, and goods and services a podcast promotes.
The network builders might find success if they carve a niche, stick with it, and have a talent for herding cats. Even then, it can argued that people who run networks are in the business of selling advertising, not podcasting.
Regarding podcast clients… only about half of the audience uses iTunes. What’s everyone else using? Considering that about half of listeners don’t even use a portable media player, perhaps they’re using an embedded player like PodPress, or a platform independent application like myPodder, which comes pre-loaded and ready to go on some devices.
I guess my feeling is that this medium is like the old saw about a river… it’s always there, cutting through the terrain, but it’s a different river every time you step into its waters. Still fresh, still beautiful, still a powerful influence on the surroundings… but always changing.
Matthew Wayne Selznick | Jun 5, 2007 | Reply
Matthew (may I call you MWS?),
I agree and disagree with you. I would definitely call this a downturn, or to put it a different way, more like the trough between waves. The first wave has definitely crested, and we are sliding down the opposite side into the trough, but the next wave is definitely coming in. So people shouldn’t be discouraged to jump in now.
Having gone through the initial .com bubble, and it’s bursting, and then getting in on the next wave, I definitely see this happening with podcasting. Given how shotgun random the .com bubble was in the first place, and how much more thought out this current expansion (wave) has been with all the cool stuff that is coming out; I am eagerly awaiting the next wave of podcasting. I don’t know what is coming, but I am sure it will be even better than the first wave most of us rode.
vandermore | Jun 5, 2007 | Reply
Me. I hate the way iTunes handles podcatching. It’s useless for me. I don’t just listen to them on my iPod, or in iTunes, or from a single computer. I listen to them from multiple devices on my home network, or my iPod. Each has their own quirks, but using iTunes seems to ensure that I have extra work to do for everything (including iTunes).
I just wrote my own tool that does some tag fixup, sets the genre to Podcast, imports into iTunes, and sets bookmarkable and skip during shuffle.
Jason Penney | Jun 6, 2007 | Reply
I do have to say that you have created a buzz. That is for certain. I understand your points, but I think there are way too many people who actually podcast just for the hell of it. If you take all of the podcasts, and figure out that percentage, I feel it would be higher than you might expect. I do not see that percentage going down. Instead I think it will continue to rise. Only time will tell for sure.
P. Dilly | Jun 6, 2007 | Reply
[quote comment="2261"]I do have to say that you have created a buzz. That is for certain.[/quote]
I’m glad. I wanted to start a conversation about this, not be the bell of gloom and doom. I think that you are right, that many do podcast for the hell of it, and I’m looking forward to listening to more of them. I just have the feeling that we’re in a dip between waves of popularity, and a new wave will be coming in the next year.
Chris | Jun 6, 2007 | Reply
i’ve listened to hundreds of podcasts over the past couple years, maybe as many as a thousand different shows. my consensus? podcasting is lame. i’ll still probably listen just because it’s habit but i’d love to break that habit.
anonymous | Jun 6, 2007 | Reply
[quote comment="2266"]i’ve listened to hundreds of podcasts over the past couple years, maybe as many as a thousand different shows. my consensus? podcasting is lame. i’ll still probably listen just because it’s habit but i’d love to break that habit.[/quote]
I’m not sure how your opinion qualifies as a “consensus”, but perhaps you’d be kind enough to elaborate on just what it is that makes podcasting “lame”?
KJToo | Jun 7, 2007 | Reply