Unquiet Desperation

We’re reaching the end of an era. The world of podcasting is maturing and changing, and I believe that we are hitting the end of that first, enthusiastic rush of people seeking to make their voices heard. Some might call it a Golden Age, but I’m not really sure that’s accurate. *Gold Rush Age* might be more apropos.

I believe that what we’re going to be seeing in the next 12-18 months is a fading of shows and personalities that helped start the podosphere. There’s no doom and gloom about this…it simply the way it goes. It is a combination of factors:

1. **Business models have either proven themselves by now, or not.** If not, they fade away, if so, the branch out and diversify, seeking to strengthen the brand. Witness the plans Podshow has to start a book imprint, or Escape Artists’ move to establish Pseudopod.
2. **Hosts have met with success and are moving on to new ventures.** Book contracts, movies, graphic novels, even radio. Work that pays a lot better than podcasting does. In the end, many may not have the time to continue a regular podcast due to these other ventures.
3. **Hosts have lost interest in the original premise of the show, and have moved on to other shows or ideas.** Again…this isn’t surprising…we all started doing this because we wanted speak out about something we were in love with, something for which we had a passion. These things can shift over time. Some, like [Mur Lafferty](http://www.geekfuactiongrip.com), have done well at navigating these waters and changing the show to match their shifting interests and priorities while retaining their audience. Others have not fared as well.
4. **The show has failed to meet the host’s expectations, and it’s time to move on.** Unless someone is truly devoted to the idea of working in a vacuum and not caring what others think, eventually a hobby has to give some sort of return on the investment of time. The hobby has to be worth it some how…either you can make money with it, or build a community, garner a bit of fame…something. There are many out there who, at this point, are growing weary of not meeting those expectations, and are ready to move on.
5. **Good old-fashioned personality conflicts.** Sometimes it just doesn’t work out. The parties go their separate ways, and the show fades away.
6. **The networks fade, and take some shows with them.** [PodcastPEN](http://www.tsfpn.com/) has shut down.. I’ve been hearing that [Trypod](http://www.trypodnetwork.com/) is in trouble. Audible is [shutting down their WorldCast service](http://www.podcastingnews.com/2007/05/30/audible-shuttering-proprietary-wordcast-podcasting-service/). That’s to be expected. The industry is maturing, and not everyone will make it over the current hurdle. It’s a bummer, and I will miss the shows that go, but it is inevitable…all good things must come to an end.

What I’m looking forward to seeing is what is going to come out of this downturn. This is a remarkable opportunity for some fresh talent to step in and take the reins. The technology is now mature and proven. The tools are in place, and creating content is just getting easier. Who will be the next generation of podcasting talent?

I cannot wait to find out. I hope they blow me away.

**UPDATE:** I’ve had a few folks point out that some of the original podcatching clients, like iPodderX (and possibly Juice, whose last update was July 19, 2006), never quite recovered from the inclusion of podcasts in iTunes. Will there be future innovation in podcatching clients? Or will we be looking to Apple to lead the way? Has the tech behind podcasting stabilized, or simply gone stale?